Monday, March 01, 2010

BAGAKOAA March 1, 2010 How did I do today?


March 1, 2010 How did I do today?

Well I got the consumer spending number right well below forecasts at .1%, but it did not seem to bother the market. Could I NOT have been the only person thinking this? The estimate was 57.5% which I suggested was a stretch. It was but we got a 56.5% which is respectable. Construction spending did continue to improve but disappointed a bit. We are still below 0 but I have a feeling we will break into positive territory next month.

OSG the oil shipping company was expected to loose 1.25 a share. I was thinking ti would only loose about 1.20. Well it blew everyone away and lost 86 cents a share. That is huge. I am going to look at the SEC filing tonight to see if there are any accounting shenanigans. As I mentioned yesterday expenses were way down.

Then there was SUG, the nat gas processor transporter and I said they would hit 55 cents a share well above the estimate and whisper. Well they came in at 42 cents a share. So why did the stock go up 2+%? Well that is why you have to look at the actual sec filing. There were one time charges totaling 14 cents a share. OK get your cray computer out. Take 42 cents a share, and add back in the 14 cents a share in one time charges. . . .That’s right 56 cents a share. Damn I’m good!

Then I mentioned KWK, Quicksliver and sad I didn’t like the brand. Nobody got it or read that far so anyway I mentioned that I would not think they would hit the 25 cent estimate, well they came in at 19 cents a share. Damn I’m . . well not really because they had one time charges of 7 cents a share so they came in at an adjusted 26 cents a share which gave the oil nat gas concern a nice bump today.

Tommorow we have SPLS, Staples reporting. 38 or 39 cents a share seems to be the number to beat. Here is my guess. 42 cents a share. Look for Staples to close tomorrow at 26.25. Whoa I am calling closing prices. Cocky little guy aren’t I? This is an important call as SPLS is a great litmus for individual entrepreneurs and small business. Last quarter the same store sales were up 1%. I am hoping for about a 3-4 % improvement. This could be a 40-42 stock in 12 months.

Autozone and Tech Data report tomorrow. AZO should hit the 2.33 earnings and even beat. BTW Real Money is talking very bearish about the stock so we will see. Tech Data will be lucky to make the quarter. I don’t have any specifics.

In closing, there were a bunch of great articles in the journal today. Get you self a copy or check it out on line.. Anna Prior did a piece in the Journal Report about the true cost of mutual funds. It is amazing. In a nutshell, you can go to Morningstar and choose a MF with an expense fee of less than 1% and think you are doing well, but trading fees buried in the fund can be as much as 2-3%. Great article. In the Money section check out the two articles about Berkshire Hathaway and their letter to share holders. Very enlightening and some real good advice. And in the Money section again look for the Matt Whittaker article about Platinum and Palladium. It will get you thinking. Also, on Bloomberg today, with all of the interest in Nuclear Energy of late, who is the worlds largest miner of Uranium? RTP, Rio Tinto. Oh yeah they do gold, copper, aluminum and own half of Australia I think. It is an interesting play on so many commodities. Do your homework and check it out.

Salve Lucrum


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