BAGAKOAA; Feb 7, 2010 I leave the country one week and . . .
Well. I went off to Germany to the Düsseldorf Boot Show. No, its not where they sell boots, they try and sell boats. “Try” being the key word here as much of the yacht and super yacht halls (there are 18+ halls each 100,000 square feet in size), were quite quiet. The busiest hall, number three, was the scuba hall. I kid you not. If the boating industry is any tell for the general economy, the Boot Show indicated we have a long ways to go. After Düsseldorf, I visited PADI’s office in Hetlingen Switzerland. The consumer confidence there was much more robust. There seems to be a general disillusionment with our “For Change” President, worries about Greece and other EU countries falling apart economically. They are talking a lot about the PIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Italy Greece and Spain or the STUPID countries which are Spain Turkey Ukraine (which makes no sense because they are quite stable and have some very interesting government bond issued) Portugal, Ireland and Denamrk, (Which again is strange because they are relatively healthy and have always had an export problem not abling them to build up their foreign reserves.) Or was it STUPID PIIGS, I don’t know. In a nutshell there was angst concerning some of these major countries defaulting on their debt and becoming the next Lehman Bros.
So in the week plus I was gone the market was down about 3.4%. The portfolio was down about 4.2% There was some stoppage and I have been in the process of rebuilding a bit.
Before I get into this, I hope you heeded the suggestion to look at AAPL after the iPad announcement. Cramer nailed this one and my recommended entry point of 192 worked. You should have picked it up at 192 Thursday night and it gained 3% on Friday. I know it’s hard to believe that 192 is cheap for a stock, but AAPL has got 275-300 written all over it. PLEASE Read the articles about the recent accounting changes for AAPL and how they account for revenues. Cramer (ooo twice in one blogg) brought this nugget of wisdom to light last October. It will and should create positive adjustments in some analyst’s reports, but this has already been factored in the current and forward looking PE.
The Salve Lucrum Portfolio took a sizeable position of ARMH off the table in a profitable trailing stop. Broadcom reported a nice quarter and Intel Corp, of course, reported well and nothing could help the sector so I was surprised to see ARM and its ADR in the US ARMH tale an 11 point hit last week. Besides a decent entry point of $9.30 on Friday, There is a possible limit entry at 9.50 Tomorrow.
The Portfolio got stopped out of most of its IBM at an 8% loss. I still like the stock and have a limit in at 118 for a round block. If I catch it I will be in the range of about a 9 PE and 2.5% yield.
The SL Portfolio got stopped out of 8% of its RIG Position, which I will re-establish after looking at what the dollar is going to do. Weaker demand for oil and a stronger dollar have played havoc with the energy sector. I do recommend looking at this 85 range a good buying point, but remember I am just a fluffy day trading casino monkey so do your homework.
I got stopped out of all three of my pharms. RHHBY, GSK and PFE with gains. I will look at the sector in the next week or so as there is some exciting new drugs hitting the market in 2010. IF the FDA cooperates and they do not have a reputation for cooperating. More to come on the drug trades.
Here is a teaser. TELT, do the homework.
I was really surprised to see American Tower take the hit this week but the market was a mess. I’ve been accumulating since September so my stop worked and I have some profit. I am looking to get back in at 40.00 first thing tomorrow. With the downward volume last week, you might wait to a 39.50, but I want back in. Actually if I had stayed home I would have moved my stop and stayed with this stock. What the world needs now is towers more towers. I will admit that the forward looking PE at 47 is rich, but still like it.
There was more INTC gathered on Friday at 19.00. Cheap.
Well, got to get ready for the big game. Here is my pick by quarter. Colts, NO, Colts and Colts to win. The final score is 30-27 Colts.
As you know I started a little trivia question, an idea stolen from Cashin Comments from UBS. The winner of the last question about giving the bird was Michael J. He got a copy of Cramer’s older book “REAL Money”.
Here is today’s trivia question: Where did the clothing style of buttons on the sleeve of a men’s suit originate. There are several variations of this answer so if you are in the ball park and the first to respond, I will announce you the winner.