Thursday, February 25, 2010

BAGAKOAA February 25, 2010 A new economic indicator.


February 25, 2010 A new economic indicator.

Wow what a day to watch Bloomberg. You had the Survivor, Health Care Island in one corner and “try not smile” Benanke in another. There should be a study done to look for a new economic indicator called the ORP effect. I was watching the S & P and DOW the whole time the President, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were on television. Now the market was off to a yucky start anyway because all of the European indices were down because “Το Χιονοδρομικό πέφτει”

That would be Greek for "the sky is falling".

Anyway the market was off about 125 points and then the President has his health care summit. Opening remarks put the market at 181 points down. They then went to Bernanke and the market came back to about 100 points down, which is when they cut back to some Senator from some place and he looked good in his Earnst Angely powder blue tie, but then Ms Pelosi had a few remarks and market was back down again to about 161 points, then back to Bernanke and the market came back a bit, then we had a screen full of the late Harry Reid (I say that because he has already lost his Senate Seat to Danny Tarkanian-if the name is familiar, Danny is the son of a famous or infamous basket ball coach of the Las Vegas Runnin Rebels via the Long Beach State 49r’s- remember the coach that used to chew on the towels- that was my good friend-Tark the Shark), and the market went down again. Of course we settled down about 60 points. Someone should check out the ORP effect, I might be on to something. (Obama, Reid, Pelosi, in case you were wondering.)

Ok did I get CRM right? They needed to beat 15 which they did but they did not hit the 19 I was looking for. 16 got them a couple of kudos but did not excite. The ORP effect knocked them down a buck and half. I have to hear or read the earnings report on Seeking alpha before I pass judgment on this stock. And when you get real lucky you can screw up and still get it right. Safeway, I said it should just beat the 53 cent a share estimate. Well it hit 53 spot on, BUT my bad 53 was a loss and they did loose 53 cents a share. FLR disappointed by missing the 87 cents a share estimate by a nickel. More importantly management had nothing nice to say about future prospects. Even with the gloomy statements, this 45 dollar stock has legs to 52. I would not be adding to the position but I’d hold if I had it which I don’t. As I had said, Kohl’s blew by the 1.37 estimate to 1.40 and was rewarding to the upside on a market challenged day. This stock is looking really nice. Do your homework but consider it a strong retail play. GAP’s also made me proud by beating the estimate and gained in the market today. 50 cents was the estimate and they hit 51. This is a good retailer as well but I’d look for a little cheaper entry point. Some value the stock at 28-30 which seems a little aggressive so look for an 18.50 entry point. Even with all of the creative accounting Siegfried and Roy could muster up, and at first glance there was a slew of fancy number work with Macau charges and interesting interest manipulation, their top line growth could not let them hit the estimate. Wynn didn’t win today. And there was no need for a Dr. in the house as DPS, Dr. Pepper beat the street by a penny. So I will proudly take 4 out of 5 and celebrate by taking my son swimming. Have a great weekend if I don’t talk to you tomorrow.

Salve Lucrum


Blogger pew4jesus said...

How can you say that Reid has already lost to Danny Tarkanian. He is not the only Republican candidate running in the primary. There are candidates much more qualified than Danny. Look at the other candidates before you make a call like that because he has a famous father. All Danny is running on is that famous name. He's never won an election yet.

February 26, 2010 at 12:11 AM  

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