Thursday, November 12, 2009

BAGAKOAA November 11, 2009 Late Night


November 11, 2009 Late Night

Caught today’s Mad Money more about that later, or not. 

After a quiet reporting day in the markets, tomorrow picks up a bit.  Keep an eye on the weekly mortgage bank applications report and hope they go up lending support to the homebuilder and one of the engines driving this “rolling bull rally”.  My guess is flat or even down as all of the euphoria for the government home buying stimulus shakes off.

Then we have the weekly jobless claims report.  If you pick up on all the tells about production being up and a slightly more optimistic shipments report from fed ex along with the big jump in shipments leaving Asia for the west coast of the US (Baltic dry Index report), one could conclude the initial claim numbers could continue to ease downward a bit.  Let’s hope so.

Then in the late morning here in CA its time for the fed to check its checkbook balance.  Year to date September the Fed is overdrawn to the tune of 1.42 trillion.  (Yes that is more than I make Douglas.)  On average for 5 years October usual has about an 80-90 billion dollar US deficit.  Haha, the consensus for tomorrow is 150 billion dollars US.  If it gets over 170, it could have a nasty impact on equities.  Then in the afternoon if you are running a coffee high and want to chill down, the Fed show you its undies.  They publish the balance sheet so you kind of see where all of the money goes.  CAUTION:  Don’t read this while driving it will cause drowsiness.

BTW in the last day I added to my BKE, ID, SQM, GME, and ARMH positions.  I made a couple of option plays but I’ll save those for tomorrow if I get a chance. 

Salve Lucrum



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