Tuesday, March 16, 2010

BAGAKOAA March 16, 2010 A Swing and miss CHIO


March 16, 2010 A Swing and miss CHIO

OK a few days ago I told you about a VERY RISKY Gamble on a Chinese on line insurance company CHIO. Ooops. I got out today with a little sting (25% down). Licking my wounds on that one. I suggest you don’t get in it and if you did get the heck out NOW! Bad call.

If you were fortunate enough to have Bloomberg in the back round all day long, you would no the big news of the day is Tiger will be in the Master’s this year. Well it really was the big news. Why it’s relevant to the market, I don’t know.

Actually everybody was talking about the FOMC, (Federal Open Market Committee). The market is a funny thing. For two weeks everybody talked about the Fed Meeting today and how everybody assumed that there would be no rate change. The market traded a little up for two weeks with the assumption there would be no rate change. Today the Fed made no rate change and it was good for the market. Strange think this Market.

If you were lucky enough to own Limited Brands, LTD, (I don’t), you got a nice surprise, the company decided to share the wealth with a special one time dividend of 1.00 a share. That would be about 300 million. They are either doing well of trying to but love. My guess the former since they have a 170 million dollar stock buyback program. This 24.00 stock has an intrinsic value north of 30.00. It is going on my watch closely list. Do your homework. (LTD has the Victoria Secret and Bath and Body Works brands.)

Let’s check the score card. RUE report today and it was supposed to hit 30 cents a share. I pegged it at 37 and it came in at 32 cents. The street liked it as it ran up a buck or more than 3%. I am liking this one a lot.

Fact Research, FDS. reported today and I suggested they came in strong. The financial information stronghold was due to hit 73 cents a share and I was saying 80 cents a share. A respectable 75 cents a share was the number and it to went up 3% today. BTW both stocks we up due to increased revenue as well as savings. We are hearing that more and more.

And in the two out of three ain’t bad category, DFS, Discover Financial was supposed to hit nine cents a share. I had them coming in stronger than that, but they actually lost 20 cents a share, a huge miss. The company explained the loss as needed to meet reserve capital under the TARP repayment plan. Which I guess makes it a good loss. Show me a good loss and I’ll show you a loss.

So there you have it. Two outa three. Not too shabby. I am thinking a decent day in the market if we get some decent volume. Maybe another 9-10 points on the S & P. What do you think? Let me know.

Salve Lucrum


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