Thursday, December 31, 2009

CVX Chevron

CVX Chevron

This Portfolio played around with several energy equities early in the year. XOM got a value rating using my system of 94. It was added to the portfolio in March at about 62 a share. I accumulated it before stopping out at 66 in July taking a small gain. I avoided most of the oil companies except for CVX because while their financials did not seem as pretty as XOM, they did seem like a more balanced play for oil and natural gas. At the time I was playing a couple of Nat Gas ETFs which went nowhere. I did like the nat gas play in CVX and at the time they were one of the few majors who had a good position on natural gas. (That has all changed with XOM’s buy out of XTO. I will be revisiting XOM after the Holidays now that all the transaction news has passed.) The portfolio has been adding CVX in the 64, 68 and 70 range. Currently CVX accounts for 5.5% of the Salve Lucrum Portfolio and is up about 12%. Chevron needs a few things to happen to get into the 90s in 2010. They need the economy in the World and in California to improve. The need to protect their margins, which have dropped in the last couple of years. They need to hope for no more social unrest in Nigeria. They need a bump in nat gas prices to the near 6.00 per cubic thousand feet. IF they can do all of that, it is 95 dollar stock if not it’s a 75 dollar stock throwing a 3.5% yield. I won’t be adding to the position but will hold it for a while. There are stops in place to protect the gains.


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