Sunday, October 04, 2009

BAGAKOAA August 6, 2009

BAGAKOAA; (For newcomers-Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages)

August 6, 2009

I am taking some profits today and licking a couple of small wounds.

Just a heads up that I am temporarily out of MDRX and WLP until we decide if we are going to have a health care program and what it might look like. Since late June I am in and out of both in the 15-16 range and 48-50 range, but they are headed south. I will take a look when Congress gets back and sends a meaningful message to America. Well, I might not wait that long but you get the point.

It is still not two late to look at GILD, RHHBY, and BMY for a nice trifacta on the H1N1 flu season. There will be pressure on these as well as WYE to share limited stockpiles with poor nations and government entities, but I am a believer in the laws of supply and demand and there is not enough serum to go around. Something else to consider about this round of influenza, it will require two vaccinations administered at least three weeks apart. I am researching the consumable end of this play (Needles, syringes, latex gloves, etc) to see who the players are. (Dan and Ben , maybe you could help?) I’ll let you know what I find out.

I heard this week that those GMAC Smart notes are now going for 58 cents on the dollar. It looks like demand is improving. Still very risky, but a 14%+ yield should be. Brian Lebrecht esq. shared with me an interesting website that provides auctions on bonds. It is interesting to play with if you are looking for some debt to balance your portfolio. Here is the site and thanks Brian:

The Bank of England today, last night, announced an additional 48 Billion sterling in stimulus for the UK. That’s about 80 billion or so buckaroos. They probably haven’t heard that the global recession is over. I am headed across the pond tomorrow, so I will tell them. They too have a cash for clunker program. So like the US, they are providing an incentive to cash poor or credit screwed consumers to get more in debt. People who are not cash poor and have decent credit who have a gas guzzling clunker probably want that gas guzzling clunker. If not they would go and buy a new car. So let’s throw another 2 billion at it. I was actually getting worried because for about 4 days there I was actually agreeing with Senator Feinstein when she was saying we should slow down and evaluate the cash for clunker program.

I twittered a little while ago: LUVMW what kind of recovery will it be. I just heard on Bloomberg that Twitter and Facebook are down. Look for US productivity to increase substantially today. So what do you thing the recovery will look like LUVM or W. Hope you saw Cramer yesterday he was hilarious but spot on with his analysis. OOOPs Twitter is back up.

With the Yahoo MS stuff happening, I am increasing my and my kids position in AAPL and GOOG. I think the Yahoo buy will keep Ballmer and team busy trying to figure out that mess for at least 18 months. I’m thinking AAPL at 180-190 and GOOG at 575 in 12 months. All of my current red numbers are in health care and diagnostics. Again let’s see what congress comes back with.

In closing, what is up with GE. I made a couple of bucks with this earlier this year in April and mar in the 11-14 rally. Everybody was saying GE at 12 wow what a bargain? Help me with this one. I looked at it over the weekend and they have 500 Billion in ST and LT debt. That is the GDP of Brazil. Tangible book value is -$5.19 a share? Why is this still going up. This is Ted’s fault that I looked at it this close. LRLCY could not make enough lipstick to make this pig look good. Why does keep inching up?

Off to Jolly Ole England. If you have any ideas or stocks you want to share with this cast of 20 or so, let me know.

SALVE LUCRUM (For Newcomers-loosely translated from Latin-Hurrah for Profit)


If we are really headed out of the worst recession since dinosaurs walked the earth. Check out these speculative stocks. I do own them in one of my or my family portfolios, but PLEASE do your homework. OMCY, VIFL, and MTNOY.


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