BAGAKOAA March 28, 2010 The week ahead.
March 28, 2010 The week ahead.
Tomorrow we have the personal income numbers reporting. Again I would like you to go back to the Jan 4th post and recall I am looking for a 19% gain this year (S&P) if the consumer begins to participate and real estate stabilizes. There was a rally, be it a bear rally of bull rally or a cross breed rally that started on February 19th. To keep this rally going we still need the consumer and stable real estate figures. We lost some ground last week with the real estate numbers.
The most important piece of the pie is the wages and salaries. It edged up a bit in January, almost a half a percent (4.8% annualized), I do not think we will see that tomorrow, and it could be a big wet blanket for what ever kind of rally we are having. Look for the wages and salary portion of the report to be slightly down or maybe if we are lucky, flat.
THE CCI reports on Tuesday and the confidence figure came down in February and I don’t see anything except a sluggish but positive stock market to cheer people up. I am guessing flat.
Wednesday look for good news in the Chicago PMI report. We had pretty good durable order reports last week, and several other tells that this report should be a good sign and the market should take back anything it lost on Tuesday.
Thursday you have domestic auto sales reporting. Last month the number was down a bit. Look for the number to be solid at the expense of Toyota. Weather improved a bit and people were out buying according to a few of the DMV offices around the country.
Thursday is also the jobless claims number which came in lower than expected unless you read last Sunday night post here. The consensus range next week is 425,000 to 445,000. I am looking at the low end say 428,000. If I am right the bull/bear rally should keep on truckin.
The ISM manufacturing index reports on Thursday and look for the 7 month trend upwards to continue. Remember anything above 50 is growth. Last month it was 56.5 and I am looking for 58.5. That is above most estimates so I am going out on a limb.
Good Friday is a Holiday in most places but the non-farm payroll figure will be released. We have had two months of declines, but this month the consensus is we should come back near even and that is a good guess as far as I am concerned.
It’s a relatively quiet earnings week but here are a few teasers. Apollo Group APOL which I made a little on in 09, reports Monday. The number to beat is 81 cents a share. I don’t see it. This 61 dollar stock has some values out there in the mid 70s. I just don’t see it. My guess is flat with last years same quarter, 77 cents a share. If that happens look for a 3-5% drop.
And in the don’t count your eggs before they hatch, Cal-Maine a regional but large egg producer, well egg distributor as they don’t really produce the eggs, but I digress. They report on Monday and are expecting 1.34 a share in earnings. I don’t know anything about eggs and did not want to learn tonight, but I will guess this to be a bit aggressive. Look for 1.30 a share. At first I thought the stock looked interesting as they have decent free cash flow. The story ends there. Not a great balance sheet, lots of debt, revenue, expenses, and income are very wobbly.
I’ll find some more for tomorrow night. Oh yeah keep an eye on HPJ, Hong Kong Powerteck. The are in the nickel and lithium battery market. I have a sneaky feeling they might have a surprise tomorrow. I didn’t say good or bad did I.