Wednesday, January 13, 2010

BAGAKOAA Jan 13, 2010 I did win 35 dollars


Jan 13, 2010 I did win 35 dollars

OK so there I was routing for the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost to the Dallas Cowboys. Then on Sunday I am routing for the Green Bay Packer’s to kick butt on the Arizona team whatever their name is. About ¾’s of the way through the game, I start thinking. “Did I Pick Green Bay or Arizona”. Alas I look at my picks and I picked Arizona and I picked Dallas. So instead of being 2 for 4 I am 4 for 4 and win $US35. Don’t ask me how.

Alcoa’s disappointing report seems to be history as the market recovered a little bit today. Tomorrow we have INTC reporting as well as JP Morgan. I bought some INTC calls on the 11th so you know how I think their reporting is going to go. Remember those trade deficit numbers. One of the strong numbers included industrial supplies. Guess what micro processors are included in those figures. I am thinking INTC, Broadcom, and AMD are going to report strong. I have been looking for a whisper number for INTC. I finally found it at .33 cents a share. The estimate is 31 cents a share. I am going to take a shot and say they should see .35 a share which should bring a nice spike to the stock. That guess is driven from some of the reports out of San Pedro and Long Beach California and the types of imports they have been seeing from Asia. Again my April calls should bode well at 35 and above. If not, I will take a beating.

JPM is reporting tomorrow. I do not have any skin in the game, but the estimate is 62 cents a share sand the whisper number is 65. I don’t see it happening but I really don’t know. Let’s just watch and see.

Mid last year I made a nice little profit playing the VIX. That of course is the volatility as measured by the Chicago Board of Option Exchange. The VIX is trading and staying below 20. I would keep an eye on this and when you see it peak above 19, Consider getting a little as if it brakes 20 it has a smooth ride to 28 according to many technical experts. (Chart Watchers). Food for thought.

As far as the SDalve Lurcum Portfolio,I pulled out of GOOG. There were two reasons for this. I called investor relations and asked about the options repricing for employees in March 09. The answer made my head spin. I did not understand what they were saying ands there was NO denial that it was dilution of value. They did indicate 2 Billion was exaggerated. I asked how much then and could not get a straight answer. I then found out I needed some cash to invest in my back yard (pool Project) and then I heard about the China issue with GOOG and I pulled the plug at a 17% gain. It was 4 % of the portfolio and now makes AAPL my biggest holding. I also added a small speculative position in BURKV, (Long shot I need to do more homework.), I took some profits in VZ as well as SQM. Like GOOG I got out of CHU, which was a big position in the portfolio, but I had recovered to a 7% loss and wanted out. I also added to a cheap cheap cheap RIG. You really need to look at this stock, it is pretty.

I just had a couple of glasses of wine with my buddy Ben and tried to read this month’s Beige Book from the FED. Sorry it will have to wait for tomorrow.

I owe you more, but its 9:52 and I am tired. Good night and

Salve Lurcum


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