Sunday, January 10, 2010

BAGAKOAA; January 8, 2010 Not a “Whole Lotta Shakin’ Goin’ On”

BAGAKOAA January 8, 2010

Not a “Whole Lotta Shakin’ Goin’ On”

US job losses were more than anticipated. As I mentioned yesterday, that should drive market inertia for the next few days. Well it didn’t drive anybody anywhere. November employment numbers were adjusted up December came in worse than expected so it was kind of a wash. There was no volume in the market (as of about noon), no strong direction, just a lazy day. Ever get the feeling people know more than they are supposed to know? Do you think maybe the big money folk have access to some of these numbers before you and I? Any way December employment numbers have at least two more modifications and in many cases the final number won’t be available till February and might not look anything like what was reported today. Still the Official 10% and real 17.3% unemployment figure sucks.

Elvis would have been 75 today. So what! It would be interesting to imagine a 75 year old Elvis. He’d probably be touring, have a slew more hit songs, but not be worth what he is today. Even Col. Parker could not have negotiated 5 million for the song “A Little Less Conversation”, which was the estimated amount for the 1968 B side on the cheapo Camden label in 2008. Lisa Marie sold 85% of here interest in her dad’s estate to CKXE owned by Bob Sillerman. It used to be Sport Entertainment. CKXE is a one dollar stock that owns American Idol and the rights to the songs and images of EPE, formerly know as Elvis Presley Enterprises. The stock is overvalued at 5.00 a share.

Back on Nov 16 I mentioned my purchase of some Jan 16 UPS 55 dollar calls. The dismal holiday retail numbers drove down some retails as well as UPS and FDX. I was actually getting concerned this week as the UPS calls were which I bought for 2.49 were down to 1.39 at one point. This morning UPS announced a few layoffs and an upward adjustment of 2010 forecasted earnings. The stock went up 7% this morning and I had a double on the calls. I took all the profit at 5.00 a call this morning. I’ll admit that I was getting worried. Cramer was pimping the stock hard this morning in the Real Money Silver Newsletter. If I tell you anymore I will have to block you from my blog.
Speaking of my blog, we had 28 visitors between last Sunday night and Monday night. I only went in 3 times so we had 25 folk actually look at this crap. Cool!

On UG/DG news (Upgrade/Downgrade), I know a few of you have KO, Coke. I do not, but just a heads up they got downgraded today at JP Morgan. They are saying it’s a 62 dollar stock. Because they do business in 200 countries, the improving dollar will make it difficult to keep margins in place. It is currently selling for about 55 a share.

Barclays down graded Verizon to a 35 dollar price target. It is trading at 31 and change. Their 2010 earnings estimate was maintained at 2.40 a share so if you do the math with their current forward looking PE ratio it is a 38 dollar stock. (16.2 X 2.40 a share = 38.88) Glad I own it and it throws a nice dividend.

And from the back to basics corner. I highly recommend Christine Benz Article series on Morningstart called 30 Days to Financial Fitness. It is a great step by step guide on basic financial management. Can’t recommend it enough.

Also, way back on September 23rd, I spotlighted a book called Active Value Investing by Katsenelson. I just want to reiterate what a great read it is. Because we are going a bit sideways in the market and there is an expectation that we will be for some time, this book is a good guide on how to make money in a “Range-Bound” market. I have a few copies if you want one let me know.

Salve Lucrum


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