Monday, November 30, 2009

BAGAKOAA November 30, 2009 Whacky day at least I got whacked.


November 30, 2009

Whacky day at least I got whacked.

The sell off this morning allowed me to continue my pruning efforts. I did get stopped out of Target after an 8% hit. Over the last couple of months I had taken a fairly strong position in Target in the 49 area. While I still feel that Target is sandbagging a bit about Holiday sales, I am out for the moment and will revisit by the end of the week.

I took myself out of BKE after a 9% loss there. If you remember I rated this retailer a 100 and had added to it since mid October. Because I rated it so high, I did not set a stop and let my emotions take it a point lower than usual. There are too many negative comments out there about retails sales that I just can’t hang with Lucky and Billabong brands. I am out but will take another look after Black Friday reports stop killing the sector.

Remember me pimping ACOM, Down 6% so I got out. I did not do due diligence on the stock. I will tear apart the financials and make a logical, not an emotional decision then. I did take advantage of the drop on Friday to add to my position in SQM and VZ. I also executed an April call option on Verizon at 28. I got it at 3.83. VZ is at 31 as this is going to post. This could be a fun leverage.

I also added to my position in Tesco, the UK grocer, retailer, banker and becoming all things to all people. Fundamentals are good and I like what I am reading in their reports and in the press. I also got back in the Schwab answer to the VIX, ticker VXX. I think the weak retail sales number and the dance in Dubai will cause some uncertainty. Uncertainty equals volatility. This is a trade not an investment. There has been some nice profit made getting in and out of this over the last 3 months. Let’s here it for sideways markets.

With a relative warm Thanksgiving and signs of a mild winter on top of the already huge Nat Gas glut. I took myself out of the FCG etf after a 4% loss. If you want to play gas, this is the way to go. Look for an impending cold streak, a drop in inventories and some political horsepower in DC to get Nat Gas back above the $4.00.

Here is a heads up. I do not own this stock but am looking very closely at it. GD, General Dynamics. It is down 2% today and do not know why. Their fundies look good. Take a look at the May 60 Call option selling for 7.90. You would need a 68 to be in the money. Also they throw a 2.5% dividend if you own it outright. I know at least two of you do. I would use the dip to add to your position.

Salve Lucrum


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