Sunday, November 21, 2010

BAGAKOAA 21 November 2010 The Rest of the Week Ahead

I hope you were not too disturbed by the tension between Salvay and Luecrum on the blog post yesterday. In that blog, Salvay indicated my guess on existing home sales would be down to 4.8 million. Well, we were at 4.5 million so 4.8 would be an upward movement not a downward movement. We do think there will be a downward movement and the number will be 4.35 million not 4.8. It should ding (a financial term for make it go lower) the market a bit.

Wednesday we will se the durable goods order number. Remember that all the big stuff we make like washing machines, air conditioners, airplanes etc. The prevailing wisdom is showing a downward move to -.1% from a 3.3% the month earlier. We do belie it will be down, but not that badly. Look for a .5% reading.

Later in the day look for personal income and personal spending to improve. So how do you play these moves. You can’t. Here is the reason. The market is definitely sideways (maybe even downish) but there is very light volume. That means there is no direction. Keep an eye on your best of breeds, cautiously add to the dips, and don’t be afraid to take some year end profit.

Here is a quick shot of the S & P 500 and you can see the sideways movement and the average to below average volume.

Hope you all have a great week and Thanksgiving. I have learned that when you want it to snow, just go out and shovel the sidewalk and driveway. Works almost everytime.

Salve Lucrum


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