Tuesday, August 03, 2010

August 3, 2010 The mighty Cronin at the bat.


August 3, 2010 The mighty Cronin at the bat.

What do you do with a batting average of .166? Back to minors I would say. Well that’s how good I did last night with my prognostications.

The personal income and outlay report came in and we were agreeing with the theory of a slight drop to 1%. Well, it hit 0 and the market corrected a bit to the down side early in the day. I can’t call that a win as we were one basis point off which is a lot in this category.

We got the pending home sales report and as expected it was down so I can’t claim a win there either since it was common knowledge and priced into the market.

I was way off on Factory orders as the consensus was a minus .5% and I was thinking a positive.1% The number came in at a disappointing -1.2% and was the anchor on the market most of the day.

On the earnings side, I was the dorky oracle of Orange County. I only got one right.

APC, Andarko blew away estimates at 49 cents a share. I was looking for a slight beat at 37.

PFE Pfizer did not miss as I had expected, they came in at a sexy 62 cents a share. I was thinking 50-51 against a consensus of 52. They had some real nice forward looking statements. Time to do more homework and put this back on the watch closely list.

I said DOW will beat. NOT. They came in at 50 cents a share versus the call number of 56 and my guess of 64. I was off 14 cents a share. Time to get a new OUIJA board.

My contrarian play about CTSH Cognizant did not pay off. I figured that all the hype might have been just that, hype. I was wrong. Well everyone was right. 56 cents a share beat everybody’s (but mine) estimates, and there were some very nice forward looking statements. Cramer called this one and we should have listened as CTSH was up 9% today. Woulda Coulda Shoulda.

(Did anyone notice the 2 year yield on Treasury Notes today.  Pay attention.  It made even dog stocks look good.  I think money is going to start pouring into equities over the next 30 days.  More later in the week after we do some homework.)

OK if you are keeping score, I am still looking for a win and YES, I got one. American tower declared 25 cents a share income versus a 20 cent a share estimate. Our guess was 24 cents, but I am taking it as a win revenues were way up so I am confused as to why the stock was down today. Seeking Alpha has a transcript of the call so I will have to look into it.

Well I was one for 6 last night as PG did not beat as I had suggested. Against an expectation of 73 they came in at 71 cents a share. Flat Clorox (Come on Dennis they are called Tidy Whities for a reason.) sales and more spending on advertising caused the imbalance. This was on top of CL reporting weak last week.

After that lousy record, I am not going to take a crak at tommorows numbers. I will leave you with another Obama moment:

"No I'm tellin ya, with the right manure these things will be covered in 20 dollar bills in no time!"

Salve Lucrum


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